Relevance of crowding effects in a coastal National Park in Germany: results from a case study on Hamburger Hallig

Coastal environments are popular sites for tourism and faced with an increasing recreational demand. Most of European coastal areas attract numerous visitors annually. In recreation research this management problem can be described in terms of carrying capacity which expresses the ability of a site or region to absorb recreational use without deterioration of natural resources and the quality of the visitor experience. As social aspects of recreation in Europe still have received little attention, the purpose of this study is to examine the applicability of the concept of social carrying capacity in a German coastal national park. The article addresses if the relationship between perceived visitor encounters, crowding perception and visitor characteristics is applicable by using data from an on-site survey (N?=?509) of visitors conducted on Hamburger Hallig, Germany. It examines whether effects of overcrowding are measurable on a popular daytrip destination with established approaches. Results demonstrate that visitors to Hamburger Hallig are characterised by a heterogeneous visitor composition of local residents and domestic tourists with different motivations and who mainly visited the area for hiking or cycling. Study findings show that valuation for reported encounters and perceived crowding differed substantially among origin of visitors and sampling dates. All in all, respondents report a high level of encounter with others and in contrast a very low level of perceived crowding.     

Short- and long-term consequences of prenatal testosterone for immune function: an experimental study in the zebra finch

Hormone-mediated maternal effects play an important role in the formation of a differentiated phenotype. They have been shown to influence a wide array of offspring traits, both early in life and in adulthood. One important offspring trait that is under the influence of maternal androgens is the immune system. In birds, a growing number of studies show that yolk androgens modulate immune function during the chick stage. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding long-term effects of prenatal androgens on offspring immunity. In this study, we therefore investigated the influence of prenatal testosterone (T) on several measures of immunity in fledgling and adult zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). Cell-mediated immune response (towards phytohaemagglutinin, PHA) of fledglings hatching from control eggs was negatively related to brood size, whereas there was no such association for fledglings hatching from eggs with experimentally elevated T levels (T fledglings). Male control fledglings showed reduced mass gain compared to female control fledglings within 24 h after the PHA injection. This pattern was reversed in T fledglings. Total antibody levels in fledglings were not affected by egg treatment. Neither cell-mediated immunity nor total antibody levels in sexually mature zebra finches were influenced by egg treatment. However, there was an immuno-enhancing effect of elevated egg T on both primary and secondary humoral immune responses toward diphtheria and tetanus antigens in ca 5 and 7 month old zebra finches. In addition, the covariation between different immune components differed between T and control offspring, suggesting that egg treatment may have altered the potential trade-offs between different parts of the immune system. Our results suggest that prenatal androgens could be an important factor contributing to individual variation in immune function even in adulthood.     

Numerical study on the ozone formation inside street canyons using a chemistry box model

Tropospheric ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO_x),volatile organic compounds (VOCs),and solar radiation.In an urban environment,ground-level vehicular exhaust is the major anthropogenic source of ozone precursors.In the cases of street canyons,pollutant dilution is weakened by the surrounding buildings that creates localized high concentration of NO_x and VOCs,and thus leads to high potential of ozone formation.By considering the major physical and chemica...     

A harvest failure approach to assess the threat from an invasive species

We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5–14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and “slow-the-spread” programs for non-native forest pests.     

Invasional meltdown: invader-invader mutualism facilitates a secondary invasion

In multiply invaded ecosystems, introduced species should interact with each other as well as with native species. Invader-invader interactions may affect the success of further invaders by altering attributes of recipient communities and propagule pressure. The invasional meltdown hypothesis (IMH) posits that positive interactions among invaders initiate positive population-level feedback that intensifies impacts and promotes secondary invasions. IMH remains controversial: few studies show feedback between invaders that amplifies their effects, and none yet demonstrate facilitation of entry and spread of secondary invaders. Our results show that supercolonies of an alien ant, promoted by mutualism with introduced honeydew-secreting scale insects, permitted invasion by an exotic land snail on Christmas Island, Indian Ocean. Modeling of land snail spread over 750 sites across 135 km2 over seven years showed that the probability of land snail invasion was facilitated 253-fold in ant supercolonies but impeded in intact forest where predaceous native land crabs remained abundant. Land snail occurrence at neighboring sites, a measure of propagule pressure, also promoted land snail spread. Site comparisons and experiments revealed that ant supercolonies, by killing land crabs but not land snails, disrupted biotic resistance and provided enemy-free space. Predation pressure on land snails was lower (28.6%), survival 115 times longer, and abundance 20-fold greater in supercolonies than in intact forest. Whole-ecosystem suppression of supercolonies reversed the probability of land snail invasion by allowing recolonization of land crabs; land snails were much less likely (0.79%) to invade sites where supercolonies were suppressed than where they remained intact. Our results provide strong empirical evidence for IMH by demonstrating that mutualism between invaders reconfigures key interactions in the recipient community. This facilitates entry of secondary invaders and elevates propagule pressure, propagating their spread at the whole-ecosystem level. We show that identification and management of key facilitative interactions in invaded ecosystems can be used to reverse impacts and restore resistance to further invasions.     

Effects of sampling error and temporal correlations in population growth on process variance estimators

Estimates of a population’s growth rate and process variance from time-series data are often used to calculate risk metrics such as the probability of quasi-extinction, but temporal correlations in the data from sampling error, intrinsic population factors, or environmental conditions can bias process variance estimators and detrimentally affect risk predictions. It has been claimed (McNamara and Harding, Ecol Lett 7:16–20, 2004) that estimates of the long-term variance that incorporate observed temporal correlations in population growth are unaffected by sampling error; however, no estimation procedures were proposed for time-series data. We develop a suite of such long-term variance estimators, and use simulated data with temporally autocorrelated population growth and sampling error to evaluate their performance. In some cases, we get nearly unbiased long-term variance estimates despite ignoring sampling error, but the utility of these estimators is questionable because of large estimation uncertainty and difficulties in estimating correlation structure in practice. Process variance estimators that ignored temporal correlations generally gave more precise estimates of the variability in population growth and of the probability of quasi-extinction. We also found that the estimation of probability of quasi-extinction was greatly improved when quasi-extinction thresholds were set relatively close to population levels. Because of precision concerns, we recommend using simple models for risk estimates despite potential biases, and limiting inference to quantifying relative risk; e.g., changes in risk over time for a single population or comparative risk among populations.     

Optimal biomass allocation in heterogeneous environments in a clonal plant—Spatial division of labor

When interconnected ramets of clonal plants are growing in heterogeneous environments, ramets may specialize to uptake locally abundant resources rather than scarce resources. This biomass allocation pattern may result in more efficient sharing of resources through physiological integration and an overall benefit to the plants (spatial division of labor; DoL).     

Swelling related to ettringite crystal formation in chromite ore processing residue

Several million tons of Chromite Ore Processing Residue (COPR) were deposited at two sites in New Jersey and Maryland, USA, and over time they exhibited extensive heaving phenomena. Ettringite, a needle-shaped mineral and an expansive mineral commonly recognized in the literature concerning cement- and soil, has been identified extensively in numerous COPR samples collected from these sites. It was therefore believed that ettringite formation and its crystal growth are strongly associated with COPR heaving. We investigated the correlation between ettringite and the heaving phenomena in COPR materials that contained no initial ettringite. Two identical COPR samples were exposed to a 4% w/w sulfate solution (25°C, 50°C) in a confined swell test apparatus. Both swell test samples were analyzed by means of X-ray powder diffraction. The peak intensities of newly formed ettringite were more pronounced in the sample tested at 50°C, and swell development was only observed in this sample. Scanning electron microscopy analyses revealed well-crystallized ettringite needles exceeding 40 μm in length for this sample, while ettringite crystals less than 15 μm in length formed in the sample tested at 25°C. Therefore, the results suggest that the quantity of ettringite and the extent of crystallization play a key role in the heave of COPR.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.